State of the art of energy management for residential sector

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Background Energy Consumption and Renewable Energy

Global Energy demand

In the human history, energy become important for their activities in every day. Several time the energy in the world made transition from one major to another. In three decades, energy consumption is gradually emerged, where the fossil fuel continues to dominate for global primary energy demand. In fact, several of them such as oil, gas, and coal still play a role in global energy system, even though energy efficiency gives noteworthy effect to control the energy demand. In 2018, energy demand in the world rises near 2.3 percent, nearly twice the average rate of growth since 2010[1]. Several aspects such as the increasing amount of residential and appliances that equipped for human activities also influence the growth of energy demand especially in electricity. In demography side, human population is predicted to increase from 7.5 billion today to 9.2 billion in 2040. It will guide the future of global energy demand. New technologies such as electric vehicle where have been developed in Europe, US, and several countries also contribute for the rising of electricity demand in the world.
The increasing electricity consumption become important issue that drives to consider and plan precisely the electricity resource’s amount and type. Global power consumption in 2018 accelerate to 3.5 percent from 2017 or 3.1 percent per year from 2000[2]. Most of power consumption is from Asia, where China dominates it against economic and industrial growth. Demand also increased in several countries such as India, South Korea, Japan and Indonesia[3]. Moreover, global warming also take into account become additional factor, availability and electricity price compel the scientist and government around the world to observe the solution for these problems.
The use of conventional energy resources in particular fossil fuel remains under debate because of its hazardous impact to the society and environment[4]. The economy and reliability of these resources become a concern for countries in the world. In fact, some countries in the current region or developed countries still rely on it to drive the economic and social activities. Most of politicians in government, company, health expert and environmentalist debate for extraction conventional fuel where it uses extremely huge so that gives some impact to the earth. Pollution and dropped earth surface for example problem has been discussed. Meanwhile, the availability and price reflect the tension of political in some countries.
Climate changing also become factor on the use of energy. Paris agreements generate most of countries in the world to hold the increasing global temperature below 2 degree Celsius and limiting the temperature 1.5 degree Celsius in maximum. Fossil fuel need to be reduced in order to repair the environmental aspect. Nevertheless, higher energy demand in 2018 drive global energy related CO2 emission jump 1.7 percent to the historic value of 33.1 Gt for carbon dioxide[6]. In power alone, using coal produces amount 10 Gt CO2 where the countries that use this resources mostly from Asia. The rising of emission is driven by higher energy consumption that resulted from vigorous global economy, another stimulation from weather conditions in part of the world also drive the mounted of energy consumption for cooling and heating. Thanks to renewable energy and nuclear energy, the growth of emission 25 percent slower than energy demand in 2018. In 2019, in USA alone, produced carbon dioxide emission from electricity generation sector has produced to 1 million and 620 thousand metric ton, where its value is reduced 8 percent compared the emission in 2018[1]. While the CO2 emission from retail electricity in residential sector in 2019 reach 620 thousand metric tons, which account for about 64 percent of the total emission in them. New alternative is emerged such as wind and solar that help to push electricity into the new energy system.
World energy demand continue to grow from year to year. Until 2017, energy consumption was still dominated by fossil fuel around 79.7% of total final energy consumption (TFEC)[8] Followed by modern renewable, traditional biomass and nuclear around 10%, 7.5% and 2.2%, respectively. In modern renewable energy itself, hydropower still much used around 3.6% from TFEC, while wind, solar, biomass, geothermal and ocean energy together in 2%. International Energy Agency (IEA) note in their report 2018 as the energy demand remain consumed fossil fuel (coal, oil, and gas), nuclear, renewables and solid biomass[2].
Instead, renewables make big progress where it rises sharply until over 150 times from previous energy consumption namely 662 MToe to 1358 MToe. Meanwhile, reduction of oil for electricity generation is started, and then it has dropped to 22.4% from previous oil use. When worldwide conduct the sustainability policy scenario where it is delivering on Paris agreement, premature death due to energy related air pollution, renewable energy will climb to 212% by 2040, and coal consumption will fall to 57% from the consumption in 2017.
Whereas the global energy demand in 2017 as shown in figure I.1(a). Industrial and transport sector dominate for consuming energy in 29 percent, while the residential use 21 percent for energy. The growth of demand in all sector also jump up from 2010 to 2017. In sector residential, rising of energy demand amount 3.92 percent while the others is resumed in figure I.1(b). Whereas the final consumption in residential uses new policy scenario that brings EU new ambition, China air cleaning policy and scheme from USA, Japan and South Korea related energy plan, it is predicted to rise 23.3%, however the residential final consumption is foreseen fall to 6% by 2040. Based on figure I.1(c), electricity generation in worldwide use coal and nuclear between 2000 and 2017 increase 2.8% and 1.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, oil consumption for electricity generation decline 22.4%, wind and solar PV jump rapidly over 500 times from previous electricity generation where in 2000 it produce 32 TWh by 2000 and rise to 1519 TWh by 2017. At the same time when new policies scenario is applied, electricity generation based on coal will be lied in 4.8% by 2040, while the one produced by wind and solar PV will climb 4.5 times from electricity generation in 2017. However, electricity based on coal will be reduced almost 79.9% by 2040, when sustainability development scenario is applied. In contrast, generation based on wind and solar PV increases sharply over 8 times from produced electricity in 2017.
Meanwhile, most of EU countries consumption remain rely on natural gas and electricity to fulfil their consumption in the residential sector[7]. Nevertheless, Denmark and Lithuania count on derived heat as the main energy carrier. In the same time, Poland and Ireland use solid fuel and petroleum product become the main energy carrier. The household consume for 27.2% of final energy consumption and most of energy is envelope by natural gas (36%) and electricity (24.1%). Where space heating dominate for energy use around 64.1% and followed water heating and lighting and appliance (exclude heating and cooling system) in 14.8% and 14.4%, successively. The portion of final consumption EU28 in residential sector are shown in figure I.2. In France and Spain, Electricity dominates the energy use in this sector around 33.7% and 39%, followed natural gas and renewable and waste in 27.9% and 21.9% of final consumption in France and 24.3% and 18.9% , respectively in Spain.
However, electricity only take over 24.3% of the final energy consumption of residential sector, which lighting and appliance not only take full 100% use from this energy but also space cooling rely on it. Electricity also consumed for 84% of other use and 48.8% of cooking. Gas plays a role for water heating, space heating and cooking area in 47.7%, 43% and 33.6%, respectively. While renewable cover energy use 23.4% of space heating and derived heat only cover water heating and space heating, Oil and petroleum product play essential role in space heating, cooking and water heating in succession 14%, 11.8% and 10.8%. Most of countries in EU spend energy consumption in space heating where Luxembourg and Belgium consume 79% and 72%. Meanwhile, Germany and France consume energy in this part in 67.1% and 66.1%, respectively.
The worst impact of climate change and conventional energy resources become subject of public interest in Europe. In 2007, for facing the fuel-based economy, In 2009 as original directive, EU as regulator develop low carbon based economy and concern in limitation of greenhouse gas emission. They take action not only in developing Renewable Energy Sources (RES) for 20 percent in 2020 but also improving energy efficiency[9]. Revise of renewable energy directive is done in December 2018 as part of clean energy in Europe package that purpose to encourage Europe as global leader in renewables energy at least 30 percent in 2030 and achieve the target of emission reduction under the Paris agreement. UE also make serious effort to set down household or consumer in the center of energy transition with the clear right to produce own electricity from renewables. Household, communities and business become clean energy producer, to lure investment and create more employment from renewable energy sector.
During the last few decades, the factors and actions mentioned above have included to the increase in the electricity cost. In fact, European statistics, depicted in Fig. I.3 and Fig. I.4, highlight an increasing trend of electricity prices for both household and non-household consumers, which led to an increase of around 5.9 % and 2.4%, respectively in the price of electricity in the last five years. Electricity prices in Germany and France also slightly increased 3.8% and 3.7%, respectively, instead in Italy, the electricity price shown drop around 1.6%.

Renewable Energy Source Development

Revolution in the energy mainly in the renewable sector, which is known by the name “Energy Transition”. In beginning of the “energy transition”, governments in several countries over the world give opportunity to gain the capacity of Renewable Energy Source (RES) in power sector while it was rose to 2378 GW in 2019, as shown at figure I.5. RES become an alternative to reduce the external energy dependency and the same time, it diminishes the environment issue associated with fossil fuel consumption[12]. During the last decade, RES become one-third of total installed power generation in the world. The new installations reach 181 GW was added in 2018, which is 64% of total attached power plant, and make a new record in front of the previous year. Statistics of RES as capacity per source in the world, in Europe and in BRICS1 are resumed for the year 2018, as shown in figure I.5. In region, Mainland China still dominant for renewables energy production than other countries where 727 GW electricity produced include hydropower technology. Followed by United States and India where it produce RES in 260 GW and 124 GW, successively.
Since 2004, the electricity from RES is increased gradually in Europe on path the EU policy target 20% share RES, which in 2018 the policy have revised to 32% for 2030. The energy consumed from it stood at 18.9% from 9.6% in 2004 and reflected in figure I.7. The 28 countries in Europe (EU-28) participate in 469 GW for RES installed capacity (figure I.6). Additionally, Germany represent EU countries that produce electricity 119 GW where wind and solar energy become the highest production in 59 GW and 45 GW, respectively. Governments in EU-28 have also create the national 2020 binding target for the increasing share of renewable energy which 12 countries already fulfil their target. Sweden was the highest share around 54.6% where pass their target 49%.
1 BRICS is an English acronym used to refer to five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Finland become second countries in 41.2%, followed by Latvia (40.3%), Denmark (36.1%) and Austria (33.4%). Nevertheless, France and Netherlands still further away from their goal where France only reach 16.6% of 23% their target and Netherlands in 7.4% of 14%. The participation of EU countries is resumed in figure I.7
Through the renewable energy investment perspective, between 2010 and 2019 global investment reach USD 2.6 trillion exclude large hydro)[13], where solar is chosen for power generation with USD 1.3 trillion investment, followed wind power and biomass and waste in USD 1 trillion and USD 115 billion, respectively. China committed to invest in renewable energy sector and become top country with USD 758 billion from 2010 until the end of first half of 2019. Then followed by USA and Japan in USD 356 billion and USD 202 billion, successively. Total investment of Europe plus United Kingdom for investment reach USD 698 billion where Germany dominate in contribution amount USD 179 billion. Based on REN21 Global Status report, India and Brazil participate for RES investment where in period 2010-2018 they contribute USD 97.5 billion and USD 58.4 billion in total. While the Asia plus Oceania exclude India redound USD 346.8 billion in total. The total investment of RES is resumed in figure I.8.
The greatest of used renewable energy such as installed power plant based on wind and solar energy technology. Several countries race to increase the capacity of it especially solar technology. IEA in 2014 make prediction in its roadmap for the global photovoltaic production in worldwide will be jump up to 16% in 2050. In another roadmap, IRENA envisage the PV system will reach to 2840 GW globally in 2030 and increasing to 8519 GW in 2050, Phenomenon in economic sector and government policies make the solar technology more and more competitive to conventional power plant technologies. Furthermore, the interest of people to photovoltaic system in their house more increased and the cost of photovoltaic is diminished in recent years, as consequence, the price of solar cells and module fall gradually. In USA, the price was plunged from USD 3.79 in first semester of 2015 to USD 2.96 in second semester of 2019[4]. IEA also organize PV price scenario where it envelope levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). They put estimation in the report for roadmap 2013-2050, which LCOE will be cut around 65% for both utility and small-scale consumers. Estimation average LCOE for utility scale PV plant in 2020 is USD 133 per MWh and USD 157 per MWh for rooftop PV system as shown in fig. I.9 and fig. I.10 respectively. But the real result is different where IRENA report 2018, average LCOE for utility-scale PV plant already in USD 85 per MWh, so that, between 2010 and 2018 LCOE drops around 77%. In other side, IEA renew the estimation in their report 2018 where it will be diminished below USD 70 per MWh in 2030 or 40% below the level in 2017. Instead, it will drop again to USD 60 per MWh by 2040[2].
China has become the leading country for producing electricity from photovoltaic, with a share of 34% from total installed photovoltaic as shown in figure I.11. It is followed by USA and Japan with 12% and 11%, respectively. And the capacity that already installed in several region, China become the top country that make PV megaproject for electricity where they installed 175 GWh of PV capacity by 2017 reach to around 205 GWh by 2019[10] or rise 17% in development PV percentage. The interesting thing where China accomplished make the big progress which they only installed 77 MWh of PV in 2004. Instead, they make giant development between 2010 and 2013. Their total PV capacity are followed by EU28 and Japan where their PV capacity lied in almost 130 GWh and 62 GWh, respectively. The development of PV in region is resumed in figure I.12. In EU region, Germany remain led the PV capacity development where it capacity led in around 49 GWh and jump to 8.36% from 2018 PV capacity. Then it followed by Italy in 21 GWh or rise 3.94% from previous year. Meanwhile, In France, installed PV plant already reached 10.6 GWh and increase 9.83% compared by 2018 results and the interesting progress is in Spain where the amount of PV capacity increased sharply from 4.76 GWh to 8.76 GWh.
Although several countries released the policies to support the solar infrastructure, some obstacles remain following the deployment of photovoltaic divide on several criteria. IEA in its report mentions the barriers of PV development in each overview namely, solar technology, project delivery and workforces overview, energy infrastructure, and also regulatory, policy and market overview[16]. For instance for energy infrastructures, the obstacles rise from insufficient grid capacity where IEA prepares the option to make grid planning and prolongation a priority agenda. While in the grid connection constraint remain, become problem where TSO or DSO have lack capacity for grid connection. IEA offers option for the action to handle this barrier with and organizes monopoly control to allow access to Independent Power Producers (IPPs).
Furthermore, the barrier is looked from policy, regulation and market framework issues, where ‘Stop-and go’ policy approaches and retroactive changes have undermined investor confidence. IEA makes action option such as to set up policy structures that enable fair sharing of risks and benefits among all stakeholders. The barrier in investment also disturbance the development progress for instance, LCOE of solar technology is uncompetitive relative to others. The action that offered is reforming the energy market where removing inefficient direct and indirect subsidies for conventional source of energy.

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Building energy consumption

In residential sector, including buildings, electricity demand is nearly 31% of the global building energy demand[8]. Heating and cooling entered in the demand because it is considered for the determination of building energy efficiency. Space cooling is reckoned for around 13% of the overall growth of electricity demand in worldwide during 1990-2016 and 22% of the enhancing electricity consumption in the building alone[29]. Several factors drive such as population, floor area, season period and geographic population determine the boosting of the cooling demand[8], [30]. In China, cooling demand rises 71% because most of 58 million people install air conditioner annually. While India increases electricity for cooling demand in 42%. While the heating demand is also increased nearly 10% between 2010 and 2017[8]. Between 2012 and 2017, global average energy use per household rises 0.7% annually and variations depend on region as shown figure I.13.
Some countries have released some regulations and some industrial offers for developing energy management products concerning energy efficiency issue. In Europe, European Commission releases the directive where the energy efficiency target was 20% by 2020. However, it was revised in 2018 with a new energy efficiency target of 32.5% by 2030. The amendment envelopes all segments included heating and cooling areas.
Statista reports global energy management development through the sale product for energy efficiency solution. They predict increasing revenue from this segment and count the COVID-19 pandemic, which alter the market. Revenue in 2017 is USD 342 million will grow to USD 12,442 million by 2024. Nevertheless, in revenue growth, it decline from 32.1% by 2017 to 11.2% in 2024. The user that use smart home in 2017 in 34.3 million will be expected to increase to 234 million by 2024. In addition, penetration rate expected jump from 1.9% in 2017 to 12% by 2024. In revenue, energy management market remain dominated by USA where they get USD 2,314 million by 2020 and followed by China and Germany with USD 1379 million and USD 681 million, respectively. While household penetration in the energy management segment, Norway become highest country with 23% followed by Sweden and Denmark with 20.8% and 19.9%, respectively. France itself, the household penetration reach 7.2%
In France, Statista predicts the market of energy management will rise, where the revenue from this segment in 2017 is USD 68.76 million expected to jump to USD 256.47 million in 2024 as shown in figure I.14. This segment envelopes the sale of product and service for equipment controller and reduction energy consumption. However, smart plug and smart meter are not included in this survey of smart home market[31].

Building Integrated Photo Voltaic (BIPV)

The electricity consumption for residential that mentioned above take 21% from global consumption or 40% from European total primary energy use. The other subjects, where the land is limited for solar farming and attempting for achieving EU Energy target 2030, the house is not only renovated follow the aesthetic but also developed with technology and energy integration where they are included in Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) concept. The first BIPV implementation is in Aachen, Germany 1991 where the PV integrated into a curtain wall façade with glass isolation[38]. In perspective, BIPV represent a strategic part of the future building vision and purpose to reach Net Zero Energy Building (NZEB), where it bring the worlds of construction and solar panel together with all challenges and opportunities build-in with change paradigm. With BIPV, all component such as technology, aesthetic, energy efficiency, functionality, reliability and flexibility put together in the same concept. BIPV technology can be easy integrated into the façade, roof and others of building. Percentage of segments in residential building in Façade product and single-family house in roof product is prepared in figure I.15 where solar modules take 30% and 41%, respectively.
Based on technology integration, technology aspect is added in the building where PV modules is considered for become integrated components that envelope in the constructive system and could meet the other function by the building envelope such as weather protection, sun protection, heat insulation, nose insulation and etc. While the aesthetic integration, it is quite difficult because PV module have to develop in accordance with the aesthetic, which its definition could not determine with objectivity and certainly, what is beautiful in term of integration, however, it could help owner and architect to alter the useful reference. The potential opportunities BIPV for developing in the market rise from several segment such as installation cost reduction, improve aesthetic, higher technical potential, solar industrial interest and government support.
Several countries have issued promote action in order to enhance the BIPV technology development[40]. Between 2014 and 2015 BIPV market grow in 35% where the capacity increase from 1.5 GW to 2.3 GW[41], while, its contribution in global to energy capacity in 2016 was 1% being around 3.4 GW where the total solar PV around 303 GW[41]–[43]. In prediction, BIPV will grow in 2020 with 30% rate each year, which the capacity is estimated to increase to 8 GW by end of year 2020[30]. In financial, BIPV reach the improvement in the market where its global market is expected to reach USD 36.74 billion by 2025 as reported Grand View Research, Inc. While BIPV market in Europe and USA lied in €3.5 billion by 2020[44].
Several industrials have explored this area. For example, RGS Energy that produces the solar shingle where they give a name “Dow Powerhouse Solar Shingle”. It was made from thin film Copper Indium Gallium Selenide (CIGS) and then it use silicon cell in new 3.0 version[45]. Dow shingle offer in power amount 55 Watts with 15.6% efficiency and 60 Watts at 17.1%. The enterprise propose the shingle cost in USD 3.89 per Watt and it give warranty product for 11 years. In addition, they also give weather performance warranty for 25 years.

Table of contents :

General Introduction
Chapter 1 Introduction Energy Consumption
1.1 Background Energy Consumption and Renewable Energy
1.1.1 Global Energy demand
1.1.2 Renewable Energy Source Development
1.1.3 Building energy consumption
1.1.4 Building Integrated Photo Voltaic (BIPV)
1.2 Photovoltaic: Self-Consumption and Energy Management
1.2.1 Self-consumption in France
1.2.2 Electricity Market: Peer to Peer Trading Concept
1.3 Thesis Content and Organization
Chapter 2 State of the art of energy management for residential sector
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Participation of Smart Grid in Energy Management
2.3 Self-Consumption: Introduction and Application
2.3.1 Net metering and net billing
2.3.2 Self-consumption categories
2.3.3 Benefit and Challenges of Self-consumption
2.4 Demand Energy Strategies
2.4.1 Energy management from supply side
2.4.2 Demand side management
2.5 Home Energy Management System
2.5.1 Component of HEMS
2.5.2 Communication tool in HEMS
2.5.3 HEMS Scheduling
2.6 Prosumer in Coordination Energy Management System
2.7 Peer to Peer Energy Trading in the Communities
2.7.1 Peer to Peer Energy Market Concept
2.7.2 Type of Peer to Peer Energy Trading
2.7.3 Advantage and Drawback of Peer to Peer
2.8 Conclusion
2.9 The Challenge, Research Approach and Thesis Contribution
References
Chapter 3 Simulation platform for study case
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Load profile forecasting in the residential
3.2.1 Literature review
3.2.2 Top-down Approach
3.2.3 Bottom-up approach
3.3 PV Profile Generator
3.3.1 PV forecasting methods
3.3.2 Statistical method
3.3.3 Physical method
3.3.4 Ensemble method (hybrid)
3.4 Energy Storage
3.5 Electric Water Heater
3.5.1 Parameter of Electric Water Heater
3.5.2 User Comfort
3.5.3 Electric Water Heater for modeling
3.6 Thermal Building
3.6.1 Background
3.6.2 Literature review
3.7 Financial Scheme
3.8 Energy Management method
3.8.1 Coordination Energy Management via Bilateral Contract
3.8.2 Application the bilateral contract in Heuristic
3.9 Conclusion
References
Chapter 4 Development of Model Predictive Control in Household Communities
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Model Predictive Control for EMS
4.2.1 Literature review
4.2.2 Optimal Control
4.2.3 Mixed integer programming formulation for MPC
4.2.4 Objective
4.2.5 Application MPC for Energy Management
4.3 Energy Management method and Solving
4.3.1 Coordination of Energy Management in the household
4.3.2 Coordination Energy Management via Bilateral Contract
4.3.3 Centralized Coordination Energy Management
4.3.4 Multilateral Energy Management
4.4 Conclusion
References
Chapter 5 Case study for Coordinated Energy Management validation simulation based
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Case Study with MPC for Market Model
5.2.1 Bilateral contract Prosumer to Consumer
5.2.2 Prosumer to Prosumer Coordination Energy
5.2.3 Energy management using Centralized Coordination
5.2.4 Pool to Pool Energy Coordination via MPC
5.3 Case study of Energy Coordination integrated with Thermal Building
5.3.1 Background
5.3.2 Introduction of INCAS Building
5.3.3 Local coordination of district in Chambery
5.3.4 Local District in Jakarta
5.3.5 Return of Investment for PV system in District
5.4 Conclusion
Reference

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