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Table of contents
1 Introduction
2 Agricultural Productivity and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
2.1 Exploring different agricultural developments
2.1.1 Baseline assumptions
2.1.2 Future yield development
2.2 Modelling framework
2.2.1 Supply side representation
2.2.2 Demand and trade
2.2.3 Implementation of the productivity scenarios
2.2.4 GHG emission accounts
2.3 Results
2.3.1 Patterns of GHG emissions in developing countries across scenarios
2.3.2 Trade-offs and synergies between GHG mitigation and food availability
2.3.3 Sensitivity analysis
2.4 Discussion and conclusions
2.A Complementary tables and figures
3 Potential Environmental Impacts of a Trade Agreement
3.1 Environmental impact of a trade agreement
3.1.1 Welfare gains from a trade agreement with environmental externality
3.1.2 Emission changes from economic activities
3.1.3 Emissions from change in carbon stock
3.2 The EU-MERCOSUR trade agreement as an application framework
3.2.1 Trade patterns between MERCOSUR and the European Union
3.2.2 Protection structure
3.2.3 Environmental challenges of production reallocation in a EU-MERCOSUR agreement
3.3 Modeling framework for assessing the trade agreement
3.3.1 A CGE model for trade policy analysis
3.3.2 A partial equilibrium model for impacts on agriculture and land use change
3.3.3 Model linkage for an integrated assessment
3.4 Analysis of different trade liberalisation scenarios
3.4.1 Trade scenarios
3.4.2 Economic impact of trade scenarios without environmental externalities
3.4.3 GHG emissions from the trade agreement
3.4.4 Decomposition of effects and role of technological change
3.5 Conclusion
3.A Complementary tables and figures
4 Modelling Land Use Changes Impacts of EU biofuels
4.1 An innovative database for a consistent representation of agricultural sectors in CGE
4.2 MIRAGE-BioF: a model dedicated to land use and bioenergy policy analysis
4.2.1 General features
4.2.2 Agricultural production function
4.2.3 Land use substitution and expansion
4.3 Land-use change from three potential scenarios for EU biofuel policies
4.3.1 Description of baseline and scenarios
4.3.2 Results
4.3.3 Sensitivity analysis
4.4 Fuel versus feed versus food: Domino effects on the demand side
4.4.1 Disappearing food: the role of final demand
4.4.2 Role of coproducts: the first feed retroaction
4.4.3 Role of pasture land: the second feed retroaction
4.4.4 Testing the possibility of higher NDF: a worst case scenario
4.5 Conclusion
4.A List of sectors and regions in the model
4.B Main characteristics of the MIRAGE-BioF database from GTAP7 and FAOSTAT
4.C Emission factors related to land use conversion in the MIRAGE-BioF model
5 Exploring Uncertainty in Indirect Land Use Change Estimates
5.1 Overview of ILUC uncertainty treatment in the economic literature
5.2 A simplified economic formulation of ILUC
5.2.1 Decomposition of a biofuel shock
5.2.2 Economic responses and price elasticities
5.2.3 Algebraic expression of ILUC and NDF
5.2.4 Emissions and ILUC factor
5.2.5 Illustration with a two regions three crops simplified case
5.3 Sensitivity analysis around usual models results
5.3.1 Sensitivity analysis around mean value
5.3.2 Uncertainties interactions
5.3.3 Role of parameter heterogeneity
5.4 Exploring the full range of parameters uncertainty
5.4.1 Overview of parameter uncertainty from literature
5.4.2 Sensitivity of ILUC to literature values
5.4.3 From indirect land use changes to ILUC factors
5.5 Conclusion
6 General Conclusion
A Yield Projection Scenarios for Chapter II
A.1 Crop yield
A.1.1 Yield extrapolation in scenarios
A.1.2 Identifying crop yield gaps
A.1.3 Comparison of crop yield gap results with the literature
A.2 Livestock productivity
A.2.1 Feed conversion efficiency calculation
A.2.2 Baseline and convergence scenario for feed efficiency
B GHG Emissions in GLOBIOM
B.1 GHG emission accounts in GLOBIOM
B.1.1 Livestock sector
B.1.2 Crop sector
B.1.3 Land use change
B.2 Comparison with the literature
B.2.1 Agriculture
B.2.2 Land use change emissions
B.3 GHG emissions uncertainties
C Parameters and modelling for Chapter V
C.1 Elasticities from literature
C.1.1 Demand elasticities
C.1.2 Land supply elasticities per crop
C.1.3 Yield elasticities
C.1.4 Agricultural land expansion elasticities
C.1.5 Marginal yield elasticities
C.2 Co-product substitution
C.3 Land use allocation and emission factors
C.3.1 Forest emission factors
C.3.2 Pasture conversion emission factors
C.4 Summary of parameters and indicator formulas
C.5 Model code in R language
Bibliography
Author index
