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Table of contents
Chapter 1: introduction
1- An overview of the economy of GCC countries
2- The trading activity in GCC markets
3- Overview of the “domination” of individual investors in GCC countries
4- A snapshot of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs)
5- The structure of our research
Chapter 2: Literature review and hypotheses regarding the credit rating agencies’ role and impact in GCC equity markets
1- Accurate theories about the role of credit rating agencies in GCC countries and markets
1.1 The level of transparency in the market
1.2 Neo-institutionalism theory
2- The impact of CRAs decisions on financial markets
2.1 Rating changes & credit watches
2.2 Previous studies on narrow and non-mature markets
3- Our hypotheses: The expected reaction of GCC stock markets to the CRAs’ decisions
Hypothesis 1
Hypothesis 2
Chapter 3: Literature review and hypotheses regarding the domination of individual investors and the effect of the English language
1. The individuals’ behaviour
2. The expected behaviour of individual investors in GCC markets
3. The possible effect of English as a Business language
3.1 Previous studies concerning the effect of the language of publication
3.2 The possible impact of the English language on the GCC equity markets
3.3 Reconsidering the role of CRAs in light of the GCC investors’ environment
4. Our hypotheses: The expected effect of the English language and individuals’ domination on GCC markets
Hypothesis 4
Chapter 4: Literature review and hypotheses regarding the influence of religion and Imams’ announcements
1. The influence of religion on stock markets and investors’ attitude towards risk
2. How religion may affect the market response to CRAs
3. Imams’ announcements In Saudi Arabia
4. Our hypotheses: The expected effects of Imams’ announcements on stock markets
Hypothesis 5
Hypothesis 6
Chapter 5: Data and Methodology
1. The questionnaire methodology
A. Distribution process
B. The sample
C. Methods to analyse the questionnaire
2. The event-study methodology
A. An overview of the event study methodology
B. Excess return measurement
C. Estimation procedures
D. Estimation and event windows
E. The calculation of CARs, CAARs
F. Data
Chapter 6: Questionnaire – Results and discussion
1. Comparison test
1.1 English speakers vs. non-English speakers
1.2 High religious investors vs. less religious investors
1.3 Key results of the comparison test
2. Logistic regression
Key results of the logistic regression regarding the effect of English language
Chapter 7: Event study – Results and discussions of the impact of CRAs’ announcements on stock prices
1. Case study: Saudi Arabia
1.1 The stock market reaction to upgrades and positive rating events
1.2 The stock market reaction to downgrades and negative rating events
1.3 Conclusion of the case study: Saudi Arabia
2. Case study: All the six GCC countries combined (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman)
2.1 Positive rating events (upgrades merged with positive credit watches)
2.2 Negative rating events (downgrades merged with negative credit watches)
3. Key learning from previous studies regarding the reaction time to CRAs’ announcements and language effect
Assessing the reaction time reported in previous literature to support our hypotheses: a methodological approach
4. Conclusion of chapter (7): CRAs’ announcements and Event-Study
Chapter 8: Event study – Results and discussion of the impact of Imams’ announcements on stock prices
1. The event study over the Imams’ announcements
1.1 Study period, methods and data
1.2 Downgrade announcements
1.3 Upgrade announcements
1.4 Conclusion of the event-study implemented on the Saudi Imams’ announcements
2. Is there an effect of Imams’ announcements over the firms’ financial health?
2.1 Our assumptions behind a possible impact of the religion factor over the firms’ financial health
2.2 Data and filtration
2.3 Methodology
2.4 Conclusion of the possible effect of Imams’ announcements over the firms’ financial health
Chapter 9: Final conclusion
1. The stock market reaction towards CRAs’ announcements
2. The stock market reaction towards Imams’ announcements
Suggestions for further research
Synthèse de la thèse en Français
Bibliography
