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Table of contents
1 Introduction
1.1 Background and motivation
1.1.1 Deregulation of electricity market in Europe
1.1.2 Deregulation of electricity market in Italy
1.1.3 Motivation
1.2 The Italian electricity market
1.2.1 The exchanges
1.2.2 Liquidity
1.2.3 Price formation mechanism
1.2.4 Production Mix
1.2.5 Physical exchange
1.2.6 Transmission limit
1.2.7 Zonal price dierence
1.2.8 Congestion
1.2.9 The database
1.2.10 Stationarity
1.2.11 Electricity Prices
1.2.12 Demand
1.2.13 Renewable energy supply
1.3 Three angles of Italian electricity market
1.3.1 Hourly electricity forecast
1.3.2 Impact of renewable supply on congestion
1.3.3 Interdependency of Italian electricity market
2 Hourly electricity price forecasting : A case study of Italy
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Empirical framework and analysis
2.2.1 Univariate framework
2.2.2 Evaluation Method
2.2.3 Univariate Model evaluation
2.2.4 Main fundamental drive
2.2.5 Multivariate Framework
2.2.6 Empirical Result and analysis
2.3 Conclusion
3 Intermittent renewable generation and network congestion: an em- pirical analysis of Italian Power Market
3.1 Introduction and literature review
3.2 Empirical strategy
3.2.1 Multinomial logit model
3.2.2 2SLS with segmented regression
3.3 Conclusion
4 Interdependency of Italian zonal prices
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Model Specication
4.2.1 First Regression
4.2.2 Second Regression
4.3 Results
4.4 Conclusion
5 Conclusion
5.1 Main conclusions
5.2 Future research direction
Appendices
