DEREGULATING AFRICAN SKIES: THE YAMOUSSOUKRO DECISION

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CHAPTER 3 DEREGULATING AFRICAN SKIES: THE YAMOUSSOUKRO DECISION

 INTRODUCTION

In Africa, where poor road, port and railway infrastructure often constrains the rapid and efficient transportation of both goods and passengers, air transport offers potential for growth and economic development by fostering trade, as well as foreign investment. However, Africa’s air transport industry has always been a relatively small player compared to the global one. In terms of revenue passenger-kilometres⁹ flown, the intra-African market represents less than 1% of the global market and total African revenue passenger-kilometres (intra-Africa and intercontinental traffic) account for only 4.12% of the global revenue passenger-kilometres (Schlumberger, 2010). Given a potential market of more than 12% of the world’s population, African air traffic is expected to grow at a 5.7% per year, which is considerably faster than the world average of 4.9%. Despite strong expected growth, intra-African markets in particular are still thin and most regions lack a true competitive environment (Schlumberger, 2010:1). Thus, the implementation of the Yamoussoukro Decision across Africa would serve as an effective tool for creating and enabling true competitiveness and homogeneity within the fragmented intra-African air transport market.
The concepts of the Yamoussoukro Declaration and Decision, the chronological progress of events related to the Decision, the role of sub-regional and regional organisations in the Yamoussoukro Decision process, as well as the progress and hindrances in the implementation of the Decision in sub-regional and regional organisations, are discussed below.

LIBERALISATION IN AFRICA

The Yamoussoukro Decision (YD) remains the single most important air transport reform policy initiative undertaken by African governments to date. It was adopted out of recognition that the restrictive and protectionist intra-African regulatory regime, based primarily on BASAs, hampered the expansion and improvement of air transport on the Continent (Meshela, 2006:1). The BASAs enabled the stakeholders to limit capacity, therefore driving up prices, maximizing profits and creating an expensive air sector. As a result, intra-African air traffic remained costly and inefficient, especially in those cases where the bilateral air services agreements protected a state-owned carrier (Schlumberger, 2010:6).
One of the vital parts of the Decision was intra-African liberalisation, the objective of which was to develop air services in Africa and to stimulate the flow of private capital in the industry (Meshela, 2006:1). As of today, the governments of Africa have not yet fully implemented the YD, although, on a small scale, some like-minded countries apply the principles of the Yamoussoukro; but not, however, on a continental-wide basis. The reasons for not applying the YD, which will be discussed in detail below, range from non-implementation of certain elements of the Decision: for example, establishing competition rules, a dispute settlement mechanism and an operational monitoring body to simply ignoring it by continuing to implement the traditional restrictive bilaterals (Schlumberger, 2010:6). Implementation of the YD would have been the biggest single development in African aviation history. Apart from the benefits to the airlines and passengers, it would have made a significant contribution to the national economies of African countries (Morrison, 2007:7).

Yamoussoukro Declaration

Prior to gaining independence, most African countries had air services that were primarily based on the European relationships and agreements. Only in the 1960s, when many colonies became independent countries, did African states start negotiating and concluding their own air services agreements. During this time, the majority of the newly independent African states created their own, mostly government-owned, national air carriers, many of which failed (Guttery, 1998).¹⁰ Most African national air carriers pursued a business model that consisted of using profitable international routes to and from the territories of their former colonial masters to cross-subsidise their costly, yet extensive domestic route networks (Guttery, 1998:1). This often resulted in the maintenance of strict bilateral relationships for intercontinental routes, where capacity was limited and controlled to maximise profitability. Governments tended to view the development of regional air services as secondary, especially when they were obliged to maintain a costly domestic network (Schlumberger, 2010:2).
Following the international example at that time, intra-African air transport services became regulated by the traditional framework of bilateral air services agreements. The typical BASAs of 1960s were based on the traditional predetermination model, by which market access and capacity were predetermined. This model controlled the market through effectively restricting competition (Doganis, 2001:16). Whereas liberalisation had been actively pursued in the United States since the late 1970s and in Europe since the late 1980s, African air services remained generally restrictive, costly and inefficient (Schlumberger, 2010:2).¹¹
In November 1984, the Economic Commission for Africa of the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECA) organised a conference in Mbabane, Swaziland to discuss the reasons why African carriers faced difficulties in obtaining traffic rights in other African states. The conference ended with the Declaration of Mbabane, which called for the creation of a technical committee that would develop “a common African approach for the exchange of third and fourth freedom rights” and “encourage the exchange of fifth freedom rights”. It further proposed an additional set of measures that focused primarily on closer cooperation between African carriers. These measures, which later became the core of the Yamoussoukro Declaration, included a joint financing mechanism, a means of coordination for scheduling air services, a centralised databank and research programme as well as the promotion and creation of sub-regional carriers (ECA, 1988:1).
The need for a continental consensus on how air transport should be used as an important instrument for social and economic development in Africa, as well as on how to speed up liberalisation of African air services, was discussed at length under the auspices of the ECA by the Ministers in charge of Civil Aviation of 40 African states in Yamoussoukro, Cote d’Ivoire. This led to the adoption of the Yamoussoukro Declaration in October 1988. The Declaration, on a new African civil aviation policy, included comprehensive proposals for a general framework of air transport reform in Africa, the unification of the fragmented air transport market and commitment from the governments represented to make all necessary efforts to integrate their airlines within eight years (ECA, 1988:2 & ECA, 2001:2). The following were the salient objectives of the Declaration (Fatokun, 2005:27):

• Ensure flexibility in granting of traffic rights among African countries;
• Encourage joint use of air transport facilities
• Encourage cooperation and ultimate merger among African carriers;
• Encourage further financing of air transport sector.

The Yamoussoukro Declaration also foresaw the gradual elimination of traffic restrictions, specifically the granting of fifth freedom rights to African airlines during the implementation period. Despite its too ambitious objectives and the weak likelihood of its implementation, the Declaration stimulated further initiatives aimed at liberalising the African air transport market (Schlumberger, 2010:10). In 1994, having evaluated the steps required to implement the Yamoussoukro Declaration, the African Ministers in charge of Civil Aviation met in Mauritius and agreed on a set of measures to facilitate the granting of third, fourth and fifth freedom rights to African carriers (ECA in Schlumberger, 2010:10). Of significance was the fact that the Yamoussoukro Declaration enforced the notion that the air transport sector in Africa needed to be liberalised. This led the ECA to include the liberalisation of air services in its work programme.

Yamoussoukro Decision

In line with the above efforts, a further important step forward towards intra-African air transport liberalisation was taken in November 1999 by African Ministers in charge of Civil Aviation. The conference was held in Yamoussoukro, Cote d’Ivoire, under the auspices of the United Nations’ Economic Commission for Africa. After intensive discussions, the Ministers adopted a “Decision Relating to the Implementation of the Yamoussoukro Declaration concerning the Liberalisation of Access to Air Transport Markets in Africa”.The Decision, called the Yamoussoukro Decision came into force on 12 August 2000 and was ratified by 44 African countries, and became fully binding on 12 August 2002 (ECA, 2001:2). In accordance with Article 2, the YD takes precedence over all bilateral and multilateral agreements within the regions which are not in conformity with it (ECA, 1999:4). Figure 3.1 presents a stylised map of the YD in the context of existing global plurilateral agreements.

CHAPTER 1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY
INTRODUCTION
1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT
1.3 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
1.4 THE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
1.5 RESEARCH CONTRIBUTION
1.6 LAYOUT OF THE STUDY
2 CHAPTER 2 AN OVERVIEW OF REGULATION AND DEREGULATION IN THE GLOBAL AVIATION INDUSTRY 
2.1 INTRODUCTION
2.2 INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR AVIATION REGULATION
2.3 DEVELOPMENT OF THE MULTILATERAL AGREEMENTS.
2.4 CONCLUSION.
3 CHAPTER 3 DEREGULATING AFRICAN SKIES: THE YAMOUSSOUKRO DECISION
3.1 INTRODUCTION.
3.2 LIBERALISATION IN AFRICA
3.3 ORGANISATIONS INVOLVED IN IMPLEMENTING THE YD WITHIN AFRICA
3.4 REGIONAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE DECISION
3.5 IMPACT OF LIBERALISATION
3.6 CONCLUSION
4 CHAPTER 4 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AVIATION POLICY AND AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC FLOWS 
4.1 INTRODUCTION
4.2 CIVIL AVIATION POLICY AS PART OF THE CIVIL AVIATION SYSTEM
4.3 CIVIL AVIATION POLICY
4.4 CIVIL AVIATION POLICY AND AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC FLOWS
4.5 SOUTH AFRICAN CIVIL AVIATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT SINCE 1990
4.6 THE TOURISM GROWTH STRATEGY
4.7 CONCLUSION
5 CHAPTER 5 QUALITATIVE METHODOLOGY 
5.1 INTRODUCTION
5.2 QUALITATIVE RESEARCH
5.3 DATA COLLECTION
5.4 QUALITATIVE DATA ANALYSIS
5.5 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS
5.6 DELPHI RESULTS
5.7 CONCLUSION
6 CHAPTER 6 QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH
6.1 INTRODUCTION
6.2 AIR LIBERALISATION INDEX
6.3 DEGREE OF AIR SERVICES LIBERALISATION IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN– INTRA-AFRICAN AND THE REGIONAL MARKETS
6.4 AIR SERVICES LIBERALISATION AND AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC
6.5 SAMPLING
6.6 DATA ANALYSIS
6.7 HYPOTHESES
6.8 CHAPTER SUMMARY
7 CHAPTER 7 RESULTS
7.1 INTRODUCTION
7.2 THE RESULTS OF THE PANEL REGRESSION MODEL
7.3 THE IMPACT OF THE SIX PREDICTORS ON AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC FLOWS
7.4 OVERVIEW OF THE SIGNIFICANT PREDICTORS
7.5 THE IMPACT OF THE ALI FEATURES ON AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC FLOWS
7.6 OVERVIEW OF THE SIGNIFICANT ALI FEATURES
7.7 CONCLUSION
8 CHAPTER 8 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
8.1 INTRODUCTION
8.2 SUMMARY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PREDICTORS IN THE FIVE MARKETS
8.3 MANAGERIAL IMPLICATIONS AND OVERALL RECOMMENDATIONS
8.4 LIMITATIONS
8.5 CONTRIBUTION OF THE THESIS
8.6 DIRECTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH
8.7 CONCLUDING REMARKS
9 9. REFERENCES
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