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Table of contents
1 International trade and economic integration in theory and practice
1.1 History of economic thought and trade theory: why do we trade?
1.2 Gravity, a workhorse for analyzing bilateral trade flows
2 Brexit, a globalization halt?
2.1 Free trade and trade integration evolution
2.2 A disintegration episode called Brexit
3 Importance and vulnerability of agri-food production and trade in the European Union
3.1 Agricultural and food sectors in the EU member states
3.2 Agricultural and food sectors in France and Brittany
3.3 Agricultural and food sectors in Ireland
4 Problem statement, objective and research questions
I Brexit context and economic disintegration
1 Introduction
2 Brexit context: EU membership history of UK, vote and negotiations
2.1 EU-UK history and relationship until 2016
2.2 2016-2020: negotiations and stakes, from referendum to actual Brexit
3 Brexit effects on UK and EU agri-food sector
3.1 Brief literature review
3.2 Some stylized facts about EU, France and the context of Brexit
4 Economic integration: definitions, historical approach and evolution
4.1 Definitions: globalization, levels of integration, trade agreements
4.2 Economic integration impacts assessment
4.3 Global economic integration evolution in the pre-Brexit history, and some cases of disintegration
5 From European deep integration to Brexit disintegration, and beyond?
5.1 Focus on integration and disintegration in Europe
5.2 A new wave of disintegration?
6 Discussion and conclusion
Appendix A – HS nomenclature
II Brexit and European agricultural and food exports
1 Introduction
2 Context of negotiations and scenarios: a brief review of the literature
2.1 Ongoing negotiations
2.2 Quantifying Brexit trade effects, a brief literature review
2.3 What about the possible scenarios?
3 Methodology and data
3.1 Structural gravity
3.2 Estimation strategy
3.3 Data
4 Results at the aggregate level
5 Effects by groups of products
6 Conclusion and further work
Appendices
III Brexit et exportations alimentaires Bretonnes
1 Introduction
2 La Bretagne agricole et agro-alimentaire: produits phares et partenaires commerciaux privilégiés
2.1 Production alimentaire bretonne
2.2 Commerce extérieur breton: viande et produits laitiers
2.3 Le Royaume-Uni, un partenaire commercial majeur de la Bretagne
dans l’alimentaire: viande, fruits et légumes, céréales, produits de la mer
2.4 La Bretagne face au Brexit
3 Méthodologie et scénarios
3.1 Modèle de gravité structurelle
3.2 Stratégie d’estimation et scénarios
4 Données internationales, françaises et bretonnes
4.1 Données observées
4.2 Prédiction des données manquantes
4.3 Résultats et robustesse des données reconstituées
4.4 Correction des données reconstituées avec l’effet frontière
5 La vulnérabilité de la Bretagne face au Brexit
5.1 Estimation du modèle de gravité
5.2 Simulation des scénarios
6 Discussion et conclusion
