Forecasting wind energy

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Table of contents

1 Résumé 
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Calibrated Ensemble Forecasts using Quantile Regression Forests and Ensemble Model Output Statistics
1.3 Forest-based Methods and Ensemble Model Output Statistics for Rainfall Ensemble Forecasting
1.4 CRPS-based Verification Tools for Extreme Events
1.5 Epilogue
2 Calibrated Ensemble Forecasts using Quantile Regression Forests and Ensemble Model Output Statistics
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Methods
2.3 Analysis of the French operational ensemble forecast system (PEARP)
2.4 Results
2.5 Discussion
2.6 Appendix
3 Forest-based Methods and Ensemble Model Output Statistics for Rainfall Ensemble Forecasting
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Quantile regression forests and gradient forests
3.3 Ensemble model output statistics and EGP
3.4 Case study on the PEARP ensemble prediction system
3.5 Results
3.6 Discussion
3.7 Appendix
4 CRPS-based Verification Tools for Extreme Events 
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Tail equivalence, wCRPS and choice of a weighting function
4.3 A CRPS-based tool using extreme value theory
4.4 Discussion
4.5 Appendix