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Table of contents
1. Introduction
1.1. Forest resources supply
1.1.1. Sustainable Forest Management
1.1.2. Industrial supply chain network
1.1.3. International Trade
1.1.4. Forest products consumption
1.1.4.1. Sawnwood
1.1.4.2. Fibre-based products
1.1.4.3. Substitute products
1.2. Drivers of long term change
1.2.1. The impact of public policies on forest products supply and demand
1.2.1.1. Renewable energy and CO2 emissions policies
1.2.1.2. Biodiversity conservation and forest recreation policies
1.2.1.3. Forest certification
1.2.2. The impact of structural changes
1.2.2.1. Composite material and wood fibre
1.2.2.2. Wood construction scenarios
1.2.2.3. Information Technology and Paper products scenarios
1.3. Forecasting of wood-products markets
1.3.1. Approaches to forest sector modelling
1.3.2. Applications of forest sector models
1.3.3. Details of a partial equilibrium model
1.3.3.1. Static market equilibrium
1.3.3.2. Dynamic market shifts
1.3.4. Econometric modelling of forest products demand
1.3.4.1. Theoretical derived demand model
1.3.4.2. Relevance of considering a demand function isolated from the rest of the market
1.3.4.3. Spurious regression issues
2. Potential impact of a transatlantic trade and investment partnership on the global forest sector
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Methods
2.2.1. Theory
2.2.2. Global Forest Products Model
2.2.3. Effects of the TTIP
2.2.4. Macroeconomic scenarios
2.3. Results
2.3.1. Price effects
2.3.2. Effects on industrial roundwood
2.3.3. Effects on sawnwood
2.3.4. Effects on wood-based Panels
2.3.5. Effects on wood pulp
2.3.6. Effects on paper and paperboard
2.3.7. Effects on value added
2.3.8. Welfare effects
2.3.9. Sensitivity analysis
2.4. Summary and conclusion
2.5. Acknowledgments
3. Reassessing forest products demand functions in Europe using a panel co-integration approach
3.1. IntroductionReassessing forest products demand functions in Europe using a panel co-integration approach
3.2. Literature
3.3. Model and data
3.4. Methodology
3.4.1. Panel non stationarity tests
3.4.2. Cointegration tests and estimation method
3.5. Results
3.5.1. Panel unit root tests
3.5.2. Cointegration tests
3.5.3. Estimated demand elasticities
3.6. Conclusion
3.7. Acknowledgements
4. Information technology, substitute or complement to paper products demand?
4.1. Introduction
4.2. Literature
4.3. Theoretical model
4.4. Estimation method and data
4.5. Results
4.6. Conclusion
5. Conclusion
Acknowledgments
A. Résumé détaillé en français
A.1. Contexte et méthodes d’analyses de la consommation de produits bois
A.2. Impact Potentiel d’un Accord de Partenariat Transatlantique sur le Secteur Forestier Mondial
A.3. Réévaluer la demande de produits forestiers en Europe à l’aide d’une approche par cointégration en panel
A.4. Les technologies de l’information, complément ou substitut de la demande de papier?
B. Appendix to chapter 3 additional samples
B.1. Unit root tests
B.1.1. PANIC (2004)
B.1.2. Carrion-i-Silvestre (2005)
B.1.3. Bai Carrion (2009)
B.2. Cointegration tests
B.2.1. Westerlund (2007)
B.2.2. Westerlund and Edgerton (2007)
B.2.3. Banerjee Carrion (2015)
B.3. Demand elasticities
B.3.1. Estimation by DOLS and PMG
B.3.2. Comparison plot
B.4. GFPM demand scenarios
B.4.1. Comparison of estimated elasticities with the literature
B.4.2. GFPM demand scenarios
C. Appendix to chapter 4
C.1. Panel cointegration tests
C.2. Thresholds results for consumption per capita in difference
C.3. DOLS and PMG estimation before and after an average break
C.4. Descriptive statistics
Bibliography


