Strategies for forecasting wind energy

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Table of contents

1 Introduction 
1.1 Renewable energy growth
1.2 Variability and its implications
1.2.1 Atmospheric variability
1.2.2 Implication for energy management
1.3 Strategies for forecasting wind energy
1.3.1 State of the art
1.3.2 Toward seasonal prediction
1.4 Objectives of the work
1.5 Outline
1.6 Description of the Data
1.6.1 ERA-Interim Reanalysis
1.6.2 ECMWF seasonal ensemble forecasts
1.6.3 Principal component analysis
2 Modelling the variability of wind energy resource 
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Data & Methods
2.2.1 Data
2.2.2 Methods
2.3 Evaluating the reconstruction methods
2.3.1 Performance of methods for wind speed distribution reconstruction
2.3.2 Performance of the methods for estimating the capacity factor
2.4 Towards monthly and seasonal forecast of the wind speed distribution
2.5 Conclusion
3 Probabilistic forecasts of the wind at the seasonal scale 
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Data & Methods
3.2.1 Data : ECMWF reanalysis and seasonal ensemble forecasts
3.2.2 Methods
3.3 Evaluation and optimization of the model
3.3.1 Diagnostic tools
3.3.2 Optimization of the model
3.4 Probabilistic wind speed forecasting at the monthly and seasonal horizon
3.4.1 Methodology
3.4.2 Results
3.5 Conclusion
4 Measuring the Risk of supply and demand imbalance at the Sea- sonal scale 
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Data & Methodology
4.2.1 Data
4.2.2 Modelling the joint PDF of Consumption and Production
4.2.3 Risk measures
4.3 Estimation of the risk measures
4.3.1 Modelling the risk of deviation from climatological means
4.3.2 Modelling the risk of extreme situations
4.4 Explanatory value of the rst PCs
4.5 Discussion and concluding remarks
5 From Numerical Weather Prediction outputs to accurate local sur- face wind speed 
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Data and Methodology
5.2.1 Data
5.2.2 Methodology
5.3 The relationship between analysed and observed winds
5.3.1 10m/100m wind speed variability comparison
5.3.2 Reconstruction of the 10m/100m observed wind speed using NWP outputs
5.4 Summary and concluding remarks
Conclusion