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Table of contents
I. Introduction
1. The European eel life cycle
2. A declining population at the European scale: an alarming state
3. Which framework to evaluate the status of the European eel stock?
4. A lack in the existing quantitative tools to assess the European eel population
5. A population potentially impacted by large scale climatic factors
II. Materials and Methods
1. Recruitment time series data available at the European level
Glass eel migration process
Relative recruitment indices
Absolute recruitment indices
2. Presentation of the model GEREM
State-space model
Observation model
Prior information and expertise
Modelling assumptions
Bayesian inference
Sensitivity analysis
3. A Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA) to investigate the different trends in recruitment over Europe Mathematics underlying DFA
Setting up the DFA model
4. Correlation analysis
Data used in the correlation analysis
Correlations analysis at different time scales
III. Results
1. The different trends in recruitment highlighted by the DFA
A widespread decline over the European continent
Is there any spatial pattern in eel recruitment?
2. The European eel stock situation through the model GEREM
Robustness of the model
Recruitment estimates at different spatial scales
Sensitivity analysis
3. Correlation analysis at the European scale
No correlations between recruitment indices and the GSI or the SST
Short term correlations between certain recruitment indices and PP in the Sargasso Sea
The NAO index affect the recruitment at a broad scale
IV. Discussion
1. Modeling methodologies and underlying assumptions
Recruitment modelling
Information included in the model
Recruitment time series used in the model
2. GEREM: a stock assessment model to assess a widely distributed population
Towards an improvement of the trend-based approach
GEREM: a starting point for improving stock-recruitment relationships?
3. Application of GEREM to the European eel population
4. The use of GEREM estimates to analyze correlations between large-scale environmental factors and glass eel recruitment at the European scale
Impact of large scale SST patterns and transport on eel survival
Primary production in the Sargasso Sea affects glass eel recruitment success
Glass eel influenced by the physical and biological structure of the North Atlantic
Are there different migration durations and migratory routes?
Recruitment estimates from GEREM
V. Conclusion
VI. Bibliography
