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Table of contents
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION
A. CONTEXT AND NEEDS
1. Vector-borne diseases, a major concern
2. Equine industry, risk and specificities
2.1. Population at risk
2.2. Population not well tracked
3. Early warning
3.1. Active surveillance
3.2. Passive surveillance
3.3. Early warning in horse population
4. Risk assessments
5. Syndromic surveillance
B. RESEARCH QUESTION
C. CASES STUDIES
1. French equine industry
1.1. Equine population
1.2. Organization of the equine industry
1.3. Disease surveillance in French horses
2. Diseases of interest
2.1. African horse sickness
2.2. Equine encephalosis
2.3. West Nile virus
D. OUTLINES OF THE WORK
CHAPTER II: QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS
A. OVERVIEW
1. General principle of risk assessment
1.1. Definitions and objectives
1.2. Method
2. Probability of entry
2.1. Definition
2.2. Estimation for VBDs
3. Probabilities of transmission and establishment
3.1. Probability of transmission
3.2. Probability of establishment
4. Conclusion
B. PROBABILITIES OF ENTRY AND ESTABLISHMENT
1. Introduction
2. Paper 1
C. COMPARISON OF DISEASES RISKS
1. Introduction
2. Method
2.1. Model for risk assessment of viruses entry
2.2. Parameters
2.3. Input data
2.4. What-if scenarios
2.5. Calculations
3. Results
3.1. Spatiotemporal probability of entry
3.2. Sensitivity analysis
3.3. What-if scenarios
4. Discussion
D. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
1. Discussion
2. Conclusion
CHAPTER III: SYNDROMIC SURVEILLANCE
A. OVERVIEW
1. Overall principle of syndromic surveillance
1.1. History
1.2. Definition and objectives
1.3. Overall approach
2. Preliminary steps
2.1. Definition of objectives
2.2. Overview of data available
2.3. Definition of syndrome
3. Data description and preprocessing
3.1. Data description
3.2. Data preprocessing
4. Detection algorithms
4.1. Choice of detection algorithm
4.2. Historical limits
4.3. Control charts
4.4. Regression methods
5. Assessment of performance
5.1. Performance metrics
5.2. Test data
6. Conclusion
B. COMPARISON OF PRE-PROCESSING METHODS
1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Data characterization
2.2. Data pre-processing
2.3. Forecasting
2.4. Detection algorithm
2.5. Quantitative assessment
2.6. Implementation
3. Results
3.1. Baseline characterization
3.2. Smoothing and forecasting
3.3. Outbreak detection
4. Discussion
5. Conclusion
C. VALUE OF EVIDENCE
1. Introduction
2. Paper 2
D. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
1. Discussion
2. Conclusion
CHAPTER IV: MULTIPLE INDICATORS OF RISK
A. MULTISTREAM SYNDROMIC SURVEILLANCE
1. Introduction
2. Paper 3
B. COMBINING QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT AND SYNDROMIC SURVEILLANCE
1. Introduction
2. Material and Methods
2.1. Bayesian framework
2.2. Simulated EE outbreaks
2.3. Probability of EE introduction
2.4. Syndromic surveillance of EE
2.5. Presentation of the concept and first feedback
3. Results
3.1. Multivariate syndromic surveillance
3.2. Combining Risk assessment
3.3. Workshop output
4. Discussion and Conclusion
C. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
1. Discussion
2. Conclusion
CHAPTER V: DISCUSSION
1. Early warning system of VBDs in horses
1.1. Quantitative risk assessment
1.2. Syndromic surveillance
1.3. Combining risk
2. Support decision-making
3. Demonstrate freedom of disease
4. Practical implementation of integrated surveillance systems
5. Conclusion
APPENDICES
REFERENCES
