The Role of ‘Work’

Get Complete Project Material File(s) Now! »

Seeing the Future of ‘Work’ as a Wicked Problem

One way of viewing the future of work is as a ‘wicked problem’. Wicked problems are those that defy easy problem definition and solutions. They require whole systems thinking, and a variety of expertise to figure out, first what the problem is, and then the potential solutions. The notion of a wicked problem originates in the planning literature and reflects the complex nature of planning in any discipline, for example, town planning, organisational planning, development to support poverty and so on. Seen in relation to tame problems that are easily defined and solved by professionals in the field concerned, wicked problems require disciplinary experts to come together and approach the central issue from a variety of viewpoints.viii The current issues facing the future of work can be thought of as ‘wicked’. Indeed, we suggest conceptualising ‘work’ itself as a wicked problem, given the definition above; and when we add the ‘future of work’ to ‘work’, we add increased complexity. Future issues (for example, resource scarcity, climate change, technology impacts and demographics) are not ‘tame’ and not easily remedied; instead they require multiple perspectives and experts to define both the problem and plausible solutions. Conceptualising the future of work as a wicked problem involves adopting an open systems approach to consider possible solutions. It draws attention to the multi-disciplinary nature of ‘work’ as a concept and encompasses wide ranging factors that have the potential to impact upon future alternatives. In order to explore the future of work in Dunedin, we devised a research method which enabled open dialogue between participants and interaction with the researchers.

Adaptability

These ideas are highlighted in the quotes the below. As we can see from the first quote, our respondents discussed the increasing role of data in the world of work as well as the increased likelihood of cultural diversity – combining these two ideas, they felt that future generations would need to be adaptable and realise that their careers and ways of working could change very quickly, which was specifically suggested in the second quote: Complexdata management, modellingandsimulations…data will be king. There will still be a massive requirement for ‘personalities’ though, who are able to get on with people from different cultures and bring ideas together. Future generations will have to be flexible in their thinking and their training, what they learn at university, may bear very little relation to what they do 10 years later (D1, Q16, 0091). The need to gain a variety of skills and be prepared to have more than one or two career options unless they are going into highly skilled employment such as doctor, surgeon, health care or specialist skills. That it is important to understand what you enjoy doing and transfer those skills into a related career where possible don’t be afraid to try your hand at a lot of different things whilst you are at school or university to see if you enjoy the industry/job (D1, Q17, 0025).

Little change, Dunedin loses more business – the world has gone global.

Year: 2030, population: 120,000 Seventeen years have passed and very little has changed. In Dunedin, life exists in a similar vein to today. People are mostly in paid employment and work close to fulltime although with more flexible hours. For many the 9-5 day has gone and has been replaced by a 24-hour clock as technology encourages work to occur globally. Generally, people drive or cycle to work, work in an office environment and communicate face-to-face whether virtually or physically. The make-up of the Dunedin workforce is similar to today, although there are more aged people in the workplace and in the general population. The number of people in the working population has decreased. The key skills remain associated with competencies in communication and web-based technologies. In general though there are less manual and less unskilled workers. The world continues to shrink, becoming more global and consolidated. Large businesses seek economies of scale and increased efficiency from acquisitions and joint ventures, resulting in higher levels of interdependency between firms. This means that many businesses in Dunedin continue to struggle to compete in a global market. However, there are some businesses that have embraced global customers and created niche markets around the world. These can be described as ‘weightless industries’, which are small and nimble with highly skilled workers. They could operate anywhere in the world but they choose to be in Dunedin. The dominant industry remains the tertiary education sector. However, while the university is still a significant employer and contributor to the local economy, student numbers have been decreasing for a number of years due to the trend towards large global universities offering flexible online papers and qualifications. In addition, increased travel costs have made the bigger centres in New Zealand more attractive to students outside of the Otago region. International student numbers have also dropped markedly.

Reaction to Scenario 1

The respondents felt that the future Dunedin depicted in scenario one was plausible, but yet it was one which held little favour with the panel. Indeed, following this path was viewed as being a negative outcome for Dunedin and the suggestion was made that Dunedin would continue to lose relevance economically and politically. A reliance on a specific number of industries holds opportunities and challenges as technology and geo-political dynamics influence markets and costs. Many respondents acknowledged the under-realised potential for the technical and material servicing of the rural sector. Rising transport fuel prices is an area where there is expected to be serious cost increases and implications for the current integrated world economy. While points were raised about the need for alternative ‘green’ and ‘energy efficient’ modes of transport, there was little focus on how to achieve this goal. Tighter regulation and levies, such as carbon pricing, was seen as an inescapable consequence. Of interest, however, was the feeling that while rising transportation costs may impact on Dunedin businesses, there is also the potential for local enterprises to develop the local market more. There was a strong sense that to effectively negotiate this scenario Dunedin would need strong, innovative and ‘outside the box’ leadership combined with a collaborative approach from business and community. Table 8 sums up the responses to the scenario, under each of the key questions asked.

More change, the localised world – Dunedin is a village. Year: 2030, population: 200,000

The world of work in Dunedin in 2030 is starting to enter a period of transformative change. There are still remnants of the past – work largely consists of full-time paid employment, in an office where face-to-face interactions are preferred. The workday is more flexible and the employment environment encourages strategies, such as job sharing and working from home. The workforce is much more diverse, particularly in terms of ethnicity and age; people are working into their 70’s and there are more skilled migrants in New Zealand and Dunedin. The population of Dunedin has increased and become more multi-cultural and more aged like the general population although with a good mix of ages in the working population. Managing diversity is an important workplace skill. There is reduced dependency on oil and transportation choices are more varied, with electric cars, buses and bicycle routes being available and used by vastly more people. The world has both shrunk and de-centralised. Globalisation has seen the consolidation of large corporates, particularly those operating in the mass commodity markets. Significant advancements in information and communication technologies has allowed for even greater communication reach that is faster than ever before. This has also supported smaller ‘weightless industries’ to operate successfully in the global realm.

Contents :

• Executive Summary
• 1. Introduction
  • Beginning a Conversation on ‘Work’
  • Seeing the Future of ‘Work’ as a Wicked Problem
  • Futures Research Methods
• 2. Understanding the Dunedin Context
  • Population Profile
  • Industry
  • Socio-Economic Issues
• 3. Research Process
  • Drivers
  • University Focus Groups
• 4. The Role of ‘Work’
  • Type of ‘Work’
  • Organisation of ‘Work’: Location and Flexibility
  • Characteristics of ‘Work’: Technology, Diversity and Transport
  • ‘Work’ Advice for Future Generations
  • Adaptability
  • Global Workplace
  • Outside of ‘Work’: What Keeps ‘You’ Awake at Night?
• 5. Scenarios and Participant Reactions
  • Scenario
  • Reaction to Scenario
  • Scenario
  • Reaction to Scenario
  • Scenarios Conclusion
  • Alternatives to Growth Scenarios
• 6. Insights on the Future
  • ‘It’s Simple, But Not Easy!’
  • ‘The Best of Times, The Worst of Times …’
  • Integrating Multiple Conversations
  • Economic Development Voices
  • Socio-Ecological Voices
  • Balanced Voices
• 7. Implications for the Future
  • Planning for the Dunedin Scenario
  • Planning for the Future: NOW!
• 8. Concluding Thoughts
  • Endnotes and References
• Appendix 1: Background to the Study – Delphi Questionnaire

GET THE COMPLETE PROJECT
Future of Work