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INTRODUCTION
Studies indicate that over the past years, mean temperature levels in Africa have increased whereas precipitation levels have declined (IPCC 2001). The temperature of the continent has also seen an increasing number of warm days and a decreasing number of extremely cold days (New et al. 2006). Spatial and temporal variability, more intense and widespread droughts and aggravated flooding have been experienced in Africa over the past few decades in addition to thedecreasing trend in rainfall levels (Hulme et al. 2001; Richard et al. 2001).
It is believed that Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change and climate variability due to the fact that the majority of the populations in Africa depend on subsistence rain-fed agriculture (Boko et al. 2007). Studies undertaken to analyse the impact of climate change on crop, livestock and mixed crop-livestock production in Africa indicated that the increasing temperature and a decrease in precipitation will significantly reduce income from agriculture (Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn 2008a; Hassan and Nhemachena 2008).
In Ethiopia, the average annual minimum temperature has increased by about 0.25oC every ten years while the average annual maximum temperature has increased by about 0.1oC. dditionally, the National Meteorological Services (NMS 2007) further showed that there was a very high variability of rainfall over the past 50 years. Even though there has also been a long history of droughts in Ethiopia, studies show that its frequency and spatial coverage have increased over the past few decades (Lautze et al. 2003).
These trends of increasing temperature, decreasing precipitation and the increasing frequency of droughts and floods are predicted to continue in the future in the tropics of Africa where Ethiopia is located (World Bank 2003; Mitchell and Tanner 2006; IPCC 2001).
Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background and problem statement
1.2 Objectives of the study
1.3 Hypotheses of the study
1.4 Approaches and methods of the study
1.5 Organisation of the thesis
Chapter 2 OVERVIEW OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AND CLIMATE IN ETHIOPIA
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Performance of the agricultural sector.
2.3 The agricultural policy environment
2.4 Climate in Ethiopia
2.5 Vulnerability of Ethiopian agriculture to climate change
2.6 Summary.
Chapter 3 REVIEW OF LITRATURE ON VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
3.1 Introduction.
3.2 Concepts and methods to vulnerability analysis
3.3 Methods for measuring vulnerability to climate change .
3.4 Approaches to assessing adaptation to climate change in agriculture
3.5 Summary
Chapter 4 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AT HOUSEHOLD AND REGIONAL LEVELS
4.1 Introduction.
4.2 Assessing household vulnerability to climate change: The case of farmers in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia.
4.3 Measuring farmer‟s vulnerability to climate change across the regional states of
Ethiopia
4.4 Summary.
Chapter 5 PERCEPTIONS AND DETERMINANTS OF FARMERS’ ADAPTATION CHOICES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NILE BASIN OF ETHIOPIA .
5.1 Introduction.
5.2 Perceptions of climate change and adaptation strategies of farmers in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia.
5.3 The empirical model and model variables
5.4 Model results and discussion .
5. 5 Conclusion policy implications.
5 .6 Summary.
Chapter 6 SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, IMPLICATIONS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE
STUDY..
6.1 Conclusions and implications for policy
6.2 Limitations of the study and areas for further research
References .
Appendices
Appendix 1: Indicators of wealth
Appendix 2: Technology
Appendix 3: Infrastructure and institutions .
Appendix 4: Irrigation potential and literacy rate
Appendix 5: Frequency of drought and flood over the past 100 years
Appendix 6: Change in climatic conditions
