SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS OF ZAMBIA

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CHAPTER 2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS OF ZAMBIA

 Introduction

Chapter 2 addresses the general socio-economic conditions of Zambia. It gives an outline of major characteristics of the country including location, demography, the economy and ethnic groupings. The chapter outlines Zambia’s potential in the major sectors and how if this potential was exploited, it could result in stability of the macroeconomic parameters and create an environment for investments, job creation and poverty reduction. This chapter picks up the argument that despite having had plans and reforms in the 1990s, policy development and implementation was weak and as a result, the performance of the economy went down during the review period. This chapter indicates that despite the poor performance of the economy Zambia has a lot of potential, which can be exploited to improve the livelihood of the Zambians.

Geography

Zambia is a landlocked country lying between thirty degrees east and fifteen degrees south. It has a total land area of 756,000 square kilometres. It has eight neighbouring countries with which it shares borders. In the west and southwest, it shares borders with Angola and Namibia. To the south, it shares borders with Botswana and Zimbabwe. To the north and northeast it shares borders with the Democratic Republic of Congo, to the east it shares borders with Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique. Administratively, the country is divided into 9 provinces and 72 districts. (CSO OF ZAMBIA census 2000 report.htt//www.zamstats.gov.zm. down loaded 9/1/06.) Lusaka is the capital city. Other major cities are Livingstone, Kabwe, Ndola, Kitwe, Mufulira, Chililabombwe and Chingola. At the local level, the country is divided into 150 constituencies and 1,800 wards (CSO 2000, Electoral Commission of Zambia 2005, Central Statistical Office (Zambia) Central Board of Health (Zambia), and ORC Macro.2003: 1).

 Political systems

Zambia became independent in October 1964. At independence Zambia embraced a multi-party system with two political parties sharing seats in parliament, i.e. the United National Independence Party (UNIP) and the African National Congress (ANC) (Sichone and Chikulo 1996: 2; Mwanakatwe 2003: 135; Mwanakatwe 1994: 39). UNIP was the ruling party headed by Dr. Kenneth David Kaunda. In 1972, a one-party state was established through the Choma Declaration that abolished ANC, and rendered any other political parties illegal, leaving UNIP as the only political party.(Sichone et al. 1996: 2; Mwanakatwe 2003: 135; Mwanakatwe 1994: 85). This famous Second Republic introduced what was called ‘participatory democracy’ under which candidates from the same party, UNIP, would stand for elections in one constituency. This system allowed several candidates, all from UNIP, to stand and compete for a parliamentary seat. The Third Republic was born in 1991 when President Kaunda signed on 17 December 1990 a bill to allow formation of other parties in the country (Sichone and Chikulo 1996: 3; Mwanakatwe 2003: 135). The 1991 elections ushered in the Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD) headed by Dr. Fredrick Chiluba, a trade unionist and a long time opponent of Dr. Kaunda. The MMD has won elections three times since, with the third time bringing President Levy Patrick Mwanawasa into power. Since the re-introduction of the multi-party system in Zambia in 1991, there are close to forty political parties that have been formed.

Demographic conditions

The population of Zambia is estimated at 9.8 million with 4.93 million being female and 4.94 million male representing 50 percent share between male and female (CSO OF ZAMBIA census 2000 report.htt//www.zamstats.gov.zm. down loaded 9/1/06; TNDP 2002-2005: 17). The annual growth rate is estimated at 2.4 %. Rural areas account for 6.4 million of the population and the urban areas account for 3.4 million people. (CSO OF ZAMBIA census 2000 report.htt//www.zamstats.gov.zm. down loaded 9/1/06.) The average density is 13 persons per kilometre squared. The settlement patterns of Zambia follow closely the line of rail from Livingstone to Chililabombwe. Close to 50.5% of the population are in urban areas making Zambia one of the most urbanized countries in Africa (CSO 2004, TNDP 2002-2005: 18).
Zambia has 72 ethnic groupings, the major ones being Kaonde, Lozi, Tonga, Bemba, Chewa/Ngoni, Lunda and Luvale. (CSO of Zambia Census 2000 report.htt//www.zamstats.gov.zm. down loaded 9/1/06.)

The economy

The Zambian economy was structured during the colonial era as a dual economy. On one hand there was a modern industrial sector dominated by the copper industry and agricultural estates owned by a small number of commercial European farmers and on the other hand, a large rural subsistence-farming sector (Palmer and Parsons 1977: 310-358.). The modern industrial sector also comprised a small manufacturing sector. Since independence in 1964, the government has made efforts to correct the imbalance through support to the agricultural sector. However, the achievements so far have fallen short of the intended goals. The agricultural sector has not made significant contributions towards raising the incomes of the majority of the peasant farmers in the rural areas (Mwanza et al. 1992: 134). A detailed discussion on the socio-economic conditions is in Chapter 3 of the thesis.

 Zambia’s development potential

Agricultural sector

Zambia is endowed with abundant natural resources available for agricultural production. Of the country’s total land area of 75 million hectares, 58% is classified as being of medium to high potential. However, only about 14 percent of the arable land is presently cultivated. (Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, National Agricultural Policy 2004-2015: 1) In addition, Zambia has abundant groundwater resources estimated at 1,740,380 million cubic meters with ground water recharge estimated at 160,080 million cubic meters per annum. Irrigable land is estimated at 423,000 hectares but only about 50,000 hectares is currently irrigated, mostly by commercial farmers (Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, National Agricultural Policy 2004-2015: 1). The country has a good climate, with rainfall varying from 600 to 1,500mm annually. The rainfall pattern defines the country’s three agro-ecological regions (PRSP 2002: 54).
Region I: the region is characterized by low rainfall of less than 800mm annually with a growing period of 80 to 120 days. This area constitutes 12% of Zambian’s total area. It covers the Gwembe Valley, Lunsemfwa Valley and Luangwa Valley in Southern, Central and Eastern Provinces, as well as the plains of Western and Southern Provinces. The region is suitable for production of drought tolerant crops and small livestock. The valley part of the region is hot, humid, and not suitable for cattle rearing because of tsetse flies (PRSP 2002: 55; Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives: National Agricultural Policy 2004-2015: 1).
Region I constitutes about 12 percent of the total land area and covers Luangwa and Zambezi River Valleys; it is characterised by low and erratic rainfall of less than 800mm. This zone has a short growing season of between 80 and 120 days. Given its low altitude, the area is hot and humid. However, although the area is hot and humid with poor soils in some places, the area is suited for growing drought resistant crops like sorghum, cotton, sesame and millet. Goat rearing and fishing potential is high. Parts of Zone I west of Zambezi River in Western Province are suited for cattle rearing and cashew nut production (Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives: National Agricultural Policy 2004-2015: 1, PRSP 2002: 54-55, TNDP 2002: 49).
Region II is located through the middle belt plateau of the country covering Central, Lusaka, Southern and Eastern Provinces. The region receives 800 to 1,000 mm of rainfall annually and has a growing season of 100 to 140 days. Some of the most fertile agricultural soils are located in Region II. This region is considered to have the highest agricultural production and permanent settled systems of agriculture are practised. This region covers 48 percent of the total land in Zambia. It comprises the degraded sand-veld plateau areas of the Central, Southern, Eastern Provinces and the Kalahari sand plateau and the Zambezi flood plain in Western Province. The growing season in this area is between 100 and 140 days and rainfall ranges between 800 mm and 1,000 mm. Agricultural activities undertaken include production of maize, tobacco, groundnuts, sunflower, soybeans, wheat, vegetables, sweet potatoes, cotton and the rearing of livestock such as cattle, goats and poultry. This is the area where commercial production has been concentrated because of relatively good soils, good rainfall, and good facilities and services. It presents the highest potential for growth in the agricultural sector (PRSP 2002: 54-55, TNDP 2002: 49; Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives:
National Agricultural Policy 2004-2015: 1).
Region III: this region has the highest rainfall in Zambia receiving more than 1,000 to 1,500 mm per annum and has a growing season of 120 to 150 days. It includes most of Northern, Luapula, Copperbelt and North-western Provinces and some parts of Central Province. In spite of high rainfall, the zone has highly leached acidic soils that limit production to tolerant crops unless liming is practised. Region III constitutes about 42 percent of the total land area in Zambia. It covers North-western, Copperbelt, Northern and Luapula Provinces. It is an area with high rainfall averaging above 1,000 mm annually. The crops grown include cassava, rice, sweet potatoes, sunflower, soybeans, millet, sorghum, pineapples and maize. Livestock such as small ruminants, poultry and cattle to a limited extent are also kept (Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives: National Agricultural Policy 2004-2015: 1).

CHAPTER 1  INTRODUCTION
1.0 PURPOSE OF CHAPTER 1
1.1 NATURE OF THE PROBLEM (PROBLEM STATEMENT)
1.2 ATTEMPTS TO RESTRUCTURE THE ECONOMY: THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS
1.3 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
1.4 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
1.5 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
1.6 METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY
CHAPTER 2  SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS OF ZAMBIA
2.0 INTRODUCTION
2.1 GEOGRAPHY
2.2 POLITICAL SYSTEMS
2.4 THE ECONOMY
2.5 ZAMBIA’S DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
2.6 POVERTY TRENDS IN ZAMBIA IN THE 1990S
2.7 THE IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS
2.8 CONCLUSION
CHAPTER 3  POLICY DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION AND THEIR POLITICAL CONTEXT IN THE POST-LIBERALIZATION ERA IN ZAMBIA
3.1 INTRODUCTION
3.2 THE BREADTH OF POLICY-MAKING IN ZAMBIA
3.4 WEAKNESSES IN POLICY IMPLEMENTATION IN ZAMBIA
3.5 POLITICAL SYSTEMS, STRUCTURES AND POLICY FORMULATION IN ZAMBIA
3.6 WOMEN’S PARTICIPATION IN POLICY FORMULATION AND DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES IN ZAMBIA109
3.7 PRIVATIZATION AND LIBERALISATION POLICIES IN ZAMBIA
3. 8 POLICY ENVIRONMENT ON DOMESTIC DEBT: THE NEW CHALLENGE FOR ZAMBIA
3.9 IMPACT OF POLICY SHIFTS ON MACROECONOMIC, FISCAL AND SECTORAL PERFORMANCE
3.10 THE INFLUENCE OF POLICY SHIFTS ON SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT
3.11 CONCLUSIONS
CHAPTER 4  IMPACT OF THE EXTERNAL SECTOR ON GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT
4.1 INTRODUCTION
4.2 IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON THE ZAMBIAN ECONOMY
4.3 WHAT SHOULD BE DONE TO BENEFIT FROM GLOBALIZATION?
4.4 EXTERNAL SECTOR INFLUENCE ON THE ECONOMY
4.5 EXTERNAL DEBT
4.6 POVERTY REDUCTION AND GROWTH FACILITY
4.7 DEBT RELIEF
4.8. IMPACT OF EXTERNAL DEBT ON GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT
4.9 AID EFFECTIVENESS IN ZAMBIA
4.10 IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
4.11 IMPACT OF REGIONAL WARS AND CONFLICTS ON POLICY DEVELOPMENT IN ZAMBIA
4.12. INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AGENDAS.
4.13 CONCLUSION
CHAPTER 5  INTERNAL SOCIAL FACTORS AND POLICY DEVELOPMENT IN ZAMBIA
5.1 INTRODUCTION
5.2 IMPACT OF POPULATION AND SOCIAL DYNAMICS ON DEVELOPMENT IN ZAMBIA IN THE 1990S
5.3 IMPACT OF POLICY DEVELOPMENT ON SOCIAL FACTORS
5.4 IMPACT OF POLICY DEVELOPMENT ON THE EDUCATION SYSTEM
5.5 ZAMBIA’S POLICY RESPONSE TO LIVELIHOOD PROGRAMMES AND SOCIAL SAFETY NETS
5.6 NATURAL DISASTERS AND POLICY DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION
5.7 INFLUENCE OF SECTORAL POLICY SHIFTS ON SOCIETY
5.8 IMPACT OF POLICIES ON THE HUMAN RESOURCE SITUATION BEYOND 1990S IN ZAMBIA
5.9 CONCLUSIONS
CHAPTER 6  PLANNING, IMPLEMENTATION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS IN THE 1980S, 1990S AND BEYOND
6.1 INTRODUCTION
6.2 DEVELOPMENT PLANS UP TO THE 1980S
6.3 INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURES FOR PLANNING AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT IN THE 1980S
6.4 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE DURING THE FOUR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANS (1965-1991)
6.5 PRESENT PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK IN ZAMBIA
6.6 PLANNING IN A LIBERALIZED ECONOMY
6.7 WEAKNESSES IN THE PLANNING SYSTEMS AND POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY
6.8 STRENGTHS IN THE PLANNING PROCESS
6.9 WEAKNESSES IN THE BUDGET PREPARATION AND EXECUTION
6.10 PLANNING BEYOND THE 1990S: AN OVERVIEW OF INTERVIEW RESULTS
6.11 CONCLUSIONS
CHAPTER 7  MODEL FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT IN ZAMBIA
7.1 INTRODUCTION
7.2 BACKGROUND TO AND JUSTIFICATION FOR THE PROPOSED MODEL
7.3 INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE PROPOSED STRATEGIC PLANNING MODEL
7.4 PROPOSED PLANNING FRAMEWORK IN THE STRATEGIC PLANNING MODEL
7.5 MONITORING AND EVALUATION SYSTEMS AND TOOLS IN THE MODEL
7.6 PROPOSED INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE FOR PLANNING AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
7.7 INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR POLICY DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION IN THE MODEL
7.8 CONCLUSIONS
CHAPTER 8  GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
8.1 CONCLUSIONS
8.2 FAILURE OF THE POLICY PROCESS IN ZAMBIA
8.3 BENEFITS FROM GLOBALIZATION
8.4 POLITICAL ECONOMY
8.5 REGIONAL INTEGRATION
8.6 PROPOSED STRUCTURES: PLANNING AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
8.7 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH
APPENDICES
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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