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Dynamics of Ecosystem Services during Forest Transitions in Reventazón, Costa Rica

Abstract

The forest transition framework describes the temporal changes of forest areas with economic development. A first phase of forest contraction is followed by a second phase of expansion once a turning point is reached. This framework does not differentiate forest types or ecosystem services, and describes forests regardless of their contribution to human well-being. For several decades, deforestation in many tropical regions has degraded ecosystem services, such as watershed regulation, while increasing provisioning services from agriculture, for example, food. Forest transitions and expansion have been observed in some countries, but their consequences for ecosystem services are often unclear. We analyzed the implications of forest cover change on ecosystem services in Costa Rica, where a forest transition has been suggested. A review of literature and secondary data on forest and ecosystem services in Costa Rica indicated that forest transition might have led to an ecosystem services transition. We modeled and mapped the changes of selected ecosystem services in the upper part of the Reventazón watershed and analyzed how supply changed over time in order to identify possible transitions in ecosystem services. The modeled changes of ecosystem services is similar to the second phase of a forest transition but no turning point was identified, probably because of the limited temporal scope of the analysis. Trends of provisioning and regulating services and their tradeoffs were opposite in different spatial subunits of our study area, which highlights the importance of scale in the analysis of ecosystem services and forest transitions. The ecosystem services transition framework proposed in this study is useful for analyzing the temporal changes of ecosystem services and linking socio-economic drivers to ecosystem services demand at different scales.

Introduction

Managing multiple ecosystem services (ES) across landscapes is challenging given that tradeoffs often occur in space and time (Anderson et al., 2009; Locatelli et al., 2014; Nelson et al., 2009; Raudsepp-Hearne et al., 2010) among bundles of multiple ES, including provisioning (i.e. products such as fibers, fuel and foods), regulating (e.g. climate, disease or water regulation) and cultural (recreation, education or heritage) services (MEA, 2005). In contrast to the spatial dimensions of ES tradeoffs, the temporal dimension is relatively poorly studied (Holland et al., 2011; Renard et al., 2015) and recent studies have called for a better understanding of ES dynamics over time, their drivers and their implications for ES tradeoffs (Carpenter et al., 2009; Dearing et al., 2012; Morán-Ordóñez et al., 2013; Renard et al., 2015; Rounsevell et al., 2010; Turner et al., 2013; Wolff et al., 2015). Historical ES analysis can help explain current ES levels, identify landscape management opportunities (Pagella and Sinclair, 2014), and improve decision-making by providing scenarios needed to understand the impacts of socio-economic drivers on ES and to predict future ES (Pagella and Sinclair, 2014; Willemen et al., 2012).
The temporal changes of ES remains poorly understood. Only 11 out of 50 studies reviewed by Pagella and Sinclair (2014) assessed past or future ES. Temporal ES dynamics are studied using economic valuation (Martínez et al., 2009; Mendoza-González et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2014), historical land-cover data as ES proxies (Balthazar et al., 2015), paleoenvironmental records (Dearing et al., 2012), literature and data review (Morán-Ordóñez et al., 2013), and modeling with tools like InVEST (Geneletti, 2013; Goldstein et al., 2012; Leh et al., 2013) or with ad hoc models (Carreño et al., 2012; Reyers et al., 2009). Few studies assess ES dynamics using biophysical models and local data that link ES changes to socio-economic drivers, including ES demand (Morán-Ordóñez et al., 2013).
In comparison, forest-cover dynamics have been widely studied (Grainger, 2009) and linked to socio-economic drivers, particularly in the forest transition framework (detailed in the next section) (Mather, 1992; Mather and Needle, 1998). For example, in Costa Rica, after decades of deforestation, forest area is now considered stabilized or increasing in some parts of the country (Calvo-Alvarado et al., 2009; Kull et al., 2007; Redo et al., 2012) due to reforestation and spontaneous regrowth, even though varying estimates make it difficult to confirm forest transition at the national scale (Grainger, 2009; Kleinn et al., 2002).
Forest transition can have contrasting implications for the provision of multiple ES, depending on forest type and landscape management. For example, the recovery of regulating ES with forest expansion is debated (Balthazar et al., 2015; Hall et al., 2012): in the second phase of the forest transition, forest expansion often results in improved regulating services but the expansion of certain types of forest plantations can also degrade water- and soil-related services (Farley, 2007; Perz, 2007).
This paper aims to analyze forest transition and the dynamics of ES in Costa Rica. We test the existence of an ES transition in the upper part of the Reventazón watershed in Costa Rica by assessing the variations of six ES in space and time from 1986 to 2008. We hypothesize that food provision increased in the early stages of development at the expense of regulating ES and that there was a recent inversion of this trend. The next section introduces the analytical framework, followed by a section presenting evidence of ES transition in Costa Rica from literature and secondary data. After a description of material and methods used for the modeling of ES, the changes of forest areas and ES are reported and discussed.

Background and analytical framework

Given the importance of forests for biodiversity, water, timber and climate, forest dynamics have been widely studied (Grainger, 2009), for example through the lens of the forest transition framework (Mather, 1992 ). This framework describes two major stages in the development trajectories of countries or regions: first, population growth and increasing food demand lead to forest clearing for agriculture; second, agricultural intensification, urbanization, industrialization and the increasing scarcity of forest products lead to trend inversion and forest expansion (Mather, 1992; Rudel et al., 2005). Forest expands along two possible paths: the ‘economic development path’ (urbanization and industrialization create rural exoduses and land abandonment, while technological progress increases agricultural productivity and reduces demand for land); and the ‘forest scarcity path’ (scarcity and increasing prices of forest products induce private actors to plant trees and public decision makers to develop reforestation policies) (Farley, 2007; Kull et al., 2007; Mather and Needle, 1998; Perz, 2007; Redo et al., 2012; Rudel et al., 2005).
Forest transitions have been documented in Europe and North America during the 19th and 20th centuries (Mather and Needle, 1998). Some studies have focused on developing countries but with different degrees of evidence (Bray, 2009; Grainger, 2009): for example, the reversal is certain in Vietnam and likely in India, but more evidence is needed for Costa Rica (DeFries and Pandey, 2010; Meyfroidt and Lambin, 2009; Redo et al., 2012). The forest transition framework has been criticized, for overlooking differences in forest types (e.g. plantations or natural forests) and their corresponding ES (Farley, 2007; Perz, 2007). ES can change without changes in forest areas, for example, from natural forests to plantations (Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2010; Putz and Redford, 2010). Forest expansion can occur through spontaneous regeneration, agroforestry, and mixed or monospecific plantations of exotic or native species, with different impacts on ES (Rudel, 2009). Thus, increasing forest areas are not always beneficial to water- and soil-related services or biodiversity (Bremer and Farley, 2010; Locatelli and Vignola, 2009).
The forest transition framework can be extended to consider changes in ES (Figure 2.1). This ES transition framework considers diverse land covers and their management, including diverse forest types, their effect on ES and the tradeoffs between them. For example, provisioning ES from agriculture may increase in the first stage of the forest transition model, at the expense of other services. Trends in ES are much more difficult to depict for the right part of the curve, as agricultural provisioning ES can decrease or stay stable, forest provisioning ES can still decrease even though forest area increases (e.g. if forest policies restrict forest harvesting), and regulating or cultural ES can have contrasting variations depending on forest type. The framework also recognizes that changes in ES are driven by demand for ES at different scales, for example, the global demand for carbon sequestration through financial incentives for developing countries to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) or local demand for hydrological services through plans for adaptation to climate change (Pramova et al., 2012).
Figure 2.1: Forest transition and ES transition frameworks.

Is there evidence of a transition of ecosystem services in Costa Rica?

In the last decades, major socio-economic changes have influenced land cover and ES in Costa Rica in general and in the Reventazón watershed in particular (see study site section). From the 1940s to the 1980s, Costa Rica experienced high rates of deforestation driven by population growth, national and international demand for beef, timber or crops, colonization policies and improved road infrastructure (Bray, 2009; Calvo-Alvarado et al., 2009). In the country as a whole, forest area decreased from 67% in 1940 to 32% in 1977 and 17% in 1983. In mountain and low mountain rainforests, such as in the Reventazón, deforestation remained low from the 1940s to the 1970s (around 0.3% per year) but increased strongly later on (up to 3.8% per year until the 1980s) (Sader and Joyce, 1988). While deforestation is associated with increased provisioning services (crops, timber, fodder for meat and milk), it reduced carbon stocks and hydrological services: erosion rates grew rapidly from the 1970s to the 1990s in the cultivated, erodible and steep soils of the Reventazón (Marchamalo and Romero, 2007) increasing costs for cleaning hydroelectric dams (Vignola et al., 2010).
From the 1980s to 2000s, economic transformations occurred that pushed smallholders to diversify their activities (Daniels, 2009). The tourism sector increased steadily, with 10% more tourists each year from 1986 to 2000 and visits to protected areas increasing by 12% per year between 1982 and 1992 (INEC et al., 2012). In 1994, tourism became the largest source of foreign exchange for Costa Rica, which was moving from an agrarian to a service economy (Brockett and Gottfried, 2002). In some areas, ecotourism opportunities pushed farmers to abandon agriculture and to restore forests for their new economic value (Stem et al., 2003). Investments in real estate by foreign nature-lovers also had a significant impact on forest conservation and restoration (Kull et al., 2007).
During the same period, environmental and forest policies progressively changed in Costa Rica. Policies emerged in the 1980s for incentivizing reforestation and forest management on private lands and the export of logs was banned, but with limited success (Brockett and Gottfried, 2002; Calvo-Alvarado et al., 2009). In 1996, a new forestry law restricted timber extraction and established a program of payments for environmental services (PES) (Pagiola, 2006). Nature-related policies also involved the creation of national parks. Since national parks were legally created in 1969, areas under various kinds of protection have expanded and now cover around 25% of the national territory (Brockett and Gottfried, 2002; Daniels, 2009). In the Reventazón watershed, the large Tapanti National Park was created in 1982. In addition, more than 80% of Cerros de la Carpintera, a protected area created in 1976, has now been reforested following widespread deforestation documented in 1960 (PREVDA, 2008).
Land-use decisions in the Reventazón watershed have been sometimes driven by the demand for hydrological ES: for example, ICE (Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad), a major Costa Rican hydroelectric company was involved in the creation of national parks upstream of hydroelectric plants (Locatelli et al., 2011b). More PES have been delivered to watersheds with actual or planned hydroelectric dams than to all other watersheds (Sánchez-Azofeifa et al., 2007). A recently established water fee will increase PES targeted at the conservation of hydrological services (Zhang and Pagiola, 2011). In addition, carbon sequestration has motivated new plantations and forest conservation in the area (Castro et al., 2000). For example, the Pax Natura Foundation developed a carbon project for reducing deforestation and the Klinki Forestry project reforested pastures and marginal farmland with the support of voluntary carbon markets (Locatelli et al., 2011a).
Although these projects may ultimately affect several thousands of hectares, their current contribution is limited.
Thus, in the 1990s, forest area trends in Costa Rica began to reverse, as a consequence of economic transformation and new environmental policies (Kleinn et al., 2002). Even if forest degradation has continued (Brockett and Gottfried, 2002), forest area is now considered to have stabilized or be increasing in the some parts of the country (Calvo-Alvarado et al., 2009; Kull et al., 2007; Redo et al., 2012). Estimates vary making it difficult to confirm forest transition at the national scale (Grainger, 2009; Kleinn et al., 2002).
Existing literature suggests an ES transition in our study site (Figure 2.2), even though some trends are still nascent and uncertain, particularly for provisioning services from agriculture. The production of the most represented crops in our study site (coffee and ornamental plants) has declined slightly since the early 2000s (-0.5%/yr), after two decades of growth (+2.2%/yr), while the production of dairy products has increased since the early 2000s (+3%/yr) (INEC et al., 2012). There is no measurement of changes in soil erosion at the watershed scale or in agricultural areas, but forest regeneration in high slope and in cloud forest areas is likely to have increased the supply of soil- and water-related services, as well as carbon sequestration (Locatelli et al., 2011b). Similarly, forest regeneration and conservation have likely increased or protected services related to outdoor activities (animal watching, white water sports, etc.) as well as scenic beauty and heritage value associated with pristine forests by most tourists (Biénabe and Hearne, 2006). The production of timber does not show a clear trend in Costa Rica since the 1970s (INEC et al., 2012), but it now comes mainly from plantations, which are rare in our study site compared to northeastern and northwestern Costa Rica (ITCR, 2004). For this reason, the supply of timber is likely to have decreased in the upper Reventazón watershed. While the demand for provisioning services was a main driver of changes in landscapes and economic services from the 1940s to the 1980s, current changes are also driven by demand for regulating and cultural services related to water, carbon and tourism.

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Table of contents :

Chapter 1 General introduction
1.1 Major issues and societal challenges
1.1.1 Managing ecosystems and sustaining livelihoods
1.1.2 Unexpected outcomes of ecosystem management: the example of climate change and forests
1.1.3 Sustainability through integrated landscape approaches that reconcile multiple and competing objectives
1.2 Social-ecological approaches for sustainability
1.2.1 Sustainability science and landscape sustainability
1.2.2 Social-ecological systems
1.2.3 Adaptive co-management for landscape sustainability
1.2.4 Ecosystem services as a bridging concept between nature and Society
1.2.5 Framing sustainability in terms of ES
1.2.6 Main challenges of ES science in the search of landscape sustainability
1.3 Understanding tradeoffs in social-ecological systems
1.3.1 Trading off between multiple value domains associated with ecosystem services
1.3.2 Tradeoffs between ES
1.3.3 Tradeoffs between stakeholders
1.4 The thesis
1.4.1 Research questions and approach
1.4.2 Study sites: two mountainous landscapes in Latin America
1.4.3 Our approach
1.4.4 Structure of the thesis
1.5 References
Chapter 2 Dynamics of Ecosystem Services during Forest Transitions in Reventazón, Costa Rica
2.1 Abstract
2.2 Introduction
2.3 Background and analytical framework
2.4 Is there evidence of a transition of ecosystem services in Costa Rica?
2.5 Study site
2.6 Materials and Methods
2.7 Results
2.8 Discussion
2.9 Conclusions
2.10 Acknowledgments
2.11 References
2.12 Supporting information
SI1. Parameters used in ES modeling
SI2. Transformation of ES variables
SI3. Details on land-cover changes
SI4. Results of the sub-watershed cluster analysis
SI5. Linear models of land-cover changes
Chapter 3 Relationships between ecosystem services: Comparing methods for assessing tradeoffs and synergies
3.1 Abstract
3.2 Introduction
3.3 Analytical Approaches to Ecosystem Service Relationships
3.4 Study Site
3.5 Materials and Methods
3.6 Results
3.6.1 Spatial correlations
3.6.2 Temporal correlation
3.6.3 Production Frontiers
3.7 Discussion
3.7.1 Comparing interpretations
3.7.2 Explaining and interpreting correlations
3.7.3 The value and constraints of the production frontier approach
3.8 Conclusion
3.9 Acknowledgements
3.10 References
3.11 Supporting information
SI1. Creation of LULC scenarios
SI2. Description of the 32 scenarios
SI3. Identification of efficient landscapes
SI4. Spatial correlation
SI5. Spatial correlation of temporal variations
SI6. Some remarks on the shape and existence of production frontiers
Chapter 4 Linking equity, power, and stakeholders’ roles in relation to ecosystem services
4.1 Abstract
4.2 Introduction
4.3 Framework for identifying stakeholders’ roles
4.4 Study site
4.5 Methods
4.5.1 Identifying focus
4.5.2 Identifying relevant stakeholders
4.5.3 Differentiating and categorizing stakeholders
4.6 Results
4.6.1 Diversity of benefits and management practices
4.6.2 Who benefits from ecosystem services?
4.6.3 Who manages ecosystem services?
4.6.4 ES that are managed by many stakeholders do not necessarily benefit many stakeholders
4.6.5 Stakeholders that benefit from ES do not necessarily participate in ES management
4.7 Discussion
4.7.1 Explaining different management and benefits of ecosystem services
4.7.2 Explaining different roles of stakeholders in management and benefits
4.7.3 Interpretations in terms of power
4.7.4 Spatial considerations
4.7.5 Collective management of ES for sustainable and equitable development?
4.8 Conclusion
4.9 Acknowledgements
4.10 References
4.11 Supplementary Information
SI1: List of stakeholders
SI2: Results of permutation tests
SI3: Stakeholder manual classification
Chapter 5 General discussion
5.1 Summary of the key findings
5.2 Methodological considerations and challenges
5.2.1 Causal mechanisms and off-site effects of tradeoffs between ES
5.2.2 Relationships between stakeholders, power asymmetries and social preferences
5.2.3 Taking into consideration scale, time and reversibility in ES tradeoffs analysis
5.2.4 Using ES tradeoff knowledge to inform decision-making
5.2.5 Discussing sustainability and equity with the concept of ES
5.3 References

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